The news that Justin Bieber and Hailey Baldwin had gotten engaged over the weekend had some of us in the entertainment sphere officially shook. After all, wasn’t the Biebs always meant to will-they-won’t-they with Selena Gomez until the end of both of their days? Was he really ready to settle down and get married just a few months after their latest breakup? And was he actually going to do that with his one-time fling who he’d only been seeing again for like a second?

But the official confirmation came from Justin and Hailey last night, meaning things are officially on. And that has everyone scrambling to find the proof about what this relationship is like, the timeline of how Justin and Hailey got to this point, and if there’s any hope that it might last. Internet sleuthers unearthed a throwback gem of a picture from 2011 featuring Hailey Baldwin holding up a copy of M with her future fiancé’s face on it… and the caption, “Why Selena knows she won’t marry Justin.” And just like that, a thousand conspiracy theories were born. Check out some of the best ones cooked up by editors Jen Maldonado, Mary Grace Garis, and myself below. Enjoy.

Mary Grace:

OH MY GOD. I AM DYING.

Jen:

SAME.

Mary Grace:

Hailey’s face though. But okay, homegirl probably isn’t going to marry Justin either. She is 21.

Jen:

A literal baby.

Mary Grace:

She has been able to legally drink for 4 minutes. I TRULY doubt this will end with an actual wedding. He’s gonna Johnny Depp that situation.

Jen:

I will be SHOCKED if Biebs and Ariana Grande end up walking down the aisle. These sudden engagements are absurd.

Mary Grace:

Same. They’re ridiculous. I just have a hard time believing this because yeah, they hooked up before, but they haven’t even been hanging out again for more than a month?

Jen:

I know! He was literally with Selena a few weeks before they reconnected. And yet Hailey is the love of his life. Sure, OK.

Mary Grace:

WAIT, WHAT?

Jen:

Oh yeah. Poor Hailey was the rebound again.

Mary Grace:

Hailey is his silver medal and we all know that.

Jen:

They rekindled RIGHT AFTER him and Selena fizzled out for like the 50th time.

Mary Grace:

What is he trying to prove?

Jen:

No clue! So unwell. But that ring, though. I would’ve said yes too even if I was like umm doubt this will happen.

Mary Grace:

F–k, it’s big.

Jen:

The diamond is MASSIVE.

justin bieber and hailey baldwin in 2014

Chelsea:

Okay, first of all, SELENA WISHES that Hailey was just a rebound. My theory is that Justin always wanted to get married and have kids young (because his mom was like a fun young mom maybe and i think he likes how close he is with his dad now but he wanted to do it ~right~ because they didn’t get married and it was an accident) and he thought it was gonna be Selena but she kept bouncing on him/not being ready to pull through, and so then he was like, “Okay, it’s Hailey.” Like I truly do not think that he is still on a bounce back from Selena back, I think it was more an ~investment into his future marriage~ than an investment into her personally and so he was easily able to just switch one out and go, “Well, this works just as well!!!” What’s amazing is that Hailey said yes, but okay.

Mary Grace:

I mean valid theory, and I think I can get on board with it, but, like, I still don’t think this undoes the narrative that Hailey won the election because someone else dropped out of the race.

Chelsea:

Theory 2: Hailey knows that you don’t have to actually get married when you get engaged in Hollywood and that it would be good for her star power. She is making a business decision akin to going on The Bachelor. “Yes, I will accept this rose.”

Jen:

Lololol, she’s def just riding the wave thinking she’s going to be Mrs. Bieber.

Chelsea:

Theory 3: She’s straight up just enjoying the fantasy of being engaged to a pop superstar who she probably had a crush on circa 2011.

Mary Grace:

Theory 4: Hailey is a 21-year-old model and she knows in such an ageist industry her career could be over in like two years and she might as well get a side job as someone’s wife just in case. Even if that someone is her aneurysm-causing f–kbuddy whose growing a seriously questionable mustache in his old age.

Chelsea:

IDK, guys. Theory 5: for me is they’re just in love and he thought about marrying her back in 2016 when they were first getting together. Like, look at this pic.

Jen:

They’re just young and “in love,” these two.

Mary Grace:

What a weird kiss pose. Who does that.

Chelsea:

Real. Like are they riding the subway? Are they holding onto the railing overhead?

Mary Grace:

Yeah, what the f–k.

Chelsea:

Are they fist pumping?

Mary Grace:

Ew.

Jen:

I believe that was NYE in the club. Like dancing on a table?????? Who knows.

Chelsea:

The fact that he never deleted it, though!

Jen:

He always knew Hailey was just waiting for him to call her again.

justin bieber and hailey baldwin in 2015

Chelsea:

Theory 6: He realized Selena was always going to be embarrassed/ashamed/experiencing the emotional turmoil of being with him and was like, “F–k that noise, I’m gonna marry someone who is thrilled about me.”

Mary Grace:

That’s very Sex and the City of him.

Jen:

Is Justin Carrie Bradshaw????? What a plot twist.

Mary Grace:

Hardly.

Jen:

Lololol.

Mary Grace:

He’s that redhead who settled for the schlubby guy in the first season. Or second season? Early on.

Jen:

HAHHA.

Chelsea:

Are you talking about Miranda??? Cynthia Nixon?

Mary Grace:

No, OMG. It’s an obscure reference if you hate pop culture. Which you clearly do.

Chelsea:

Rude, but okay.

Mary Grace:

It was Carrie’s friend Brooke, and she had this history of dating the most exciting men in Manhattan. To her, every night was like senior prom. But then when they go to her wedding to see who she ended up with, it was like someone unappealing. And she goes to hug Carrie after the reception and she’s all, “It’s better to marry someone who loves you more than you love them.”

Chelsea:

Oh.

Mary Grace:

And I think that’s really valid. I think as we get older we grow tired of chasing people, which is why eventually, EVENTUALLY we try to get rid of our own Justin Biebers. Even if it takes a few thousand tries and upwards of a decade.

Jen:

^ RT RT. You’re preaching, MG.

Mary Grace:

Speaking from experience, it makes more sense to me that a 21-year-old would think this is a good longterm investment.

Chelsea:

Also, Selena-style, it’s not worth it to sacrifice all of your other relationships just to be with one particular man.

Mary Grace:

Word.

Jen:

So so true.

Chelsea:

Even if that one man were the love of your life, he cannot sustain you if he ruins all your familial relationships and friendships.

Mary Grace:

Absolutely!

Chelsea:

Selena’s mom WENT TO THE HOSPITAL because she felt so sick about them.

Mary Grace:

Yeah, her f–king MOM who raised her. As a teenager. Getting sick because of this on-again, off-again disaster.

Chelsea:

Also I maintain that this is good evidence that it’s just love:

Chelsea:

It’s Carly Rae Jepsen’s “Run Away With Me” and he sent it to her on Twitter the day after he posted the makeout pic on Instagram.

Jen:

That song, what a jam.

Mary Grace

I mean, he probably likes her fine. I don’t think he popped the question because he thinks she’s a troll. There’s romantic history there.

Chelsea:

Theory 7: Selena is actually the security blanket relationship, as tumultuous as it is, and Hailey is the real one.

Mary Grace:

WHOA. WHOA WHOA WHOA WHOA. Mind blown.

Jen:

STOP IT RIGHT NOW, CHELSEA. Go listen to Bieb’s “Nothing Like Us” about him and Selena. THAT WAS HIS TRUE LOVE.

Chelsea:

Selena is the relationship you keep returning to because it’s comfortable and it was your first love and you just want to hold onto it because it was what you thought your life would be when you were just starting it at 18 and had all these dreams and ideas and plans. But really you were 18 and dumb and you keep trying because it’s like, “But wouldn’t it be cool if my first love was my last love?” with no consideration for whether it was his BEST love.

Jen:

I mean I’ve always been a little bit anti-Jelena because I myself had a Bieber and I always got mad Sel went back to him. She needed to break the cycle.

Mary Grace:

Same. I think it’s very common.

Chelsea:

Yeah, and you know that relationship was comfortable and tempting but not GOOD. What I want to know is why Hailey and Justin broke up the first time.

Jen:

She claims because he was out on tour. AKA he probably wanted to hook up with more hot models. And since she’s so in love with him, she’s like fine. Because she knew he would come back eventually.

Chelsea:

“We went through a long period of time when we weren’t friends… We didn’t speak for quite some time and there was a lot of weirdness that went on…” That’s from Hailey. That doesn’t sound like casual hook-up friends that parted ways after they weren’t exclusively dating.

justin bieber and hailey baldwin in 2016

Mary Grace:

Didn’t something happen with Sofia Richie?

Jen:

OH RIGHT, LOL. Sofia. How could we forget that month?

Mary Grace Garis:

I laughed from the kitchen. It was a full Goofy laugh. Ya-huh.

Chelsea:

What if he went back to Hailey again now because he knows Hailey is the only one who has ever been able to shake him out of his Selena-funk?

Mary Grace:

Hmmmmm.

Chelsea:

And then he was just like “???? Okay, why do I think of this as just like fun medicine? What if we just actually did this for real and I take it seriously because this could be serious?”

Mary Grace:

I mean do you think if that’s a thought he had it’s a real and clear-minded thought? A correct thought? Because I’m willing to believe that no matter what the reason for the engagement is, this is not going to be a great, everlasting love.

Chelsea:

OK, here’s the timeline. October 2014: rumored Jelena breakup date. November 2015: Justin says, “Sorry,” “Mark My Words,” and “What Do You Mean?” are about Selena and says she was his “first real love” and that “it was really tough. I don’t know if I’m over it yet.” Also he serenades Selena with “My Girl” at a hotel bar in public. December 2015: He goes on a (family?) vacation with Hailey and they have that infamous potential New Year’s Eve kiss. January 2016: He tweets “Run Away With Me” to Hailey.

Mary Grace:

Right, that’s all very much too close for comfort to me, you know?

Jen:

EXACTLY. That’s why it was always suspicious. Like right after Selena fizzles, he runs to Hailey. That means something.

Chelsea:

He was in a funk for a YEAR and then he kisses Hailey and there’s not much public Selena mourning until he’s asked about her dating The Weeknd in 2017.

Mary Grace:

I’m not into that.

Chelsea:

No, I’m talking myself further and further into the “Hailey helped him see the light at the end of the Selena tunnel and that there was more possibilities in life than just ending up with Selena” theory.

Mary Grace:

And we, as outsiders, are not buying it. Clearly.

Chelsea:

But look! He and selena break up (again), he’s in a funk for a year, he finally gives Hailey a chance, realizes his cold dead heart is capable of feelings for someone other than Selena, but emotionally he’s not ready to get serious with anyone who is not Selena, so he f–ks off on Hailey, dates Sofia, the rest is him being a mess for a while. But then Selena seems to be seriously moving on with The Weeknd and not just messing around with Orlando Bloom and he sees that dream of being with his first love slipping away if she’s serious with someone else, so he steals her back from The Weeknd, they date for a while and it’s just as tumultuous and bad as ever, they break up, and he realizes there’s only ever been ~one girl~ that is able to make him ~dream about something else~. He gets back together with Hailey and this time he’s ready to get real with it.

Mary Grace:

Okay, so here’s my question. Are Hailey and Selena the only girls he’s had recurring things with?

Jen:

There are other models that he would go back to; feel like there was a running list. But those are just his “flings” and “friends.” He’s only ever dated Selena and Hailey, I feel like, who got the girlfriend title.

Chelsea:

I don’t even know that Hailey got the official girlfriend title as much as there was just speculation around them for like a year before they started actually hooking up.

Mary Grace:

Yeah. That’s what we’re saying. Even then I feel like he only dated Hailey for three months.

Jen:

He was friends with her for years then they like hooked up for a bit. Have they just been in love all this time then? ALL WEIRD TO ME.

Chelsea:

But Hailey was significant to me because she is in the GQ profile.

Mary Grace:

What does it say about her there?

Chelsea:

He says Hailey is “someone I really love. We spend a lot of time together.” And he talks about marriage and not being ready to get serious because he’s young and on tour, blah blah blah (although obvs he would’ve married Selena, so there’s that evidence for him just not being ready to settle down if it’s not with the girl he dreamed about it with). And then he says, re: talking about marriage and dating and not getting serious yet, “What if Hailey ends up being the girl I’m gonna marry, right? If I rush into anything, if I damage her, then it’s always gonna be damaged. It’s really hard to fix wounds like that. It’s so hard.… I just don’t want to hurt her.”

Mary Grace:

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Okay, pause, we need to explain why you’re probably wrong.

Chelsea:

IDK, I kind of feel like I’ve made up my mind. I’m a Justin/Hailey truther now.